The damage to the Korean group from the verdict is painful, but surmountable.
The real question is the hit to Google’s Android operating system.
More than half of all smartphones run on Android. Assuming other Android-using
phonemakers, including HTC, Sony, ZTE, and Huawei, fear their own day in
court (HTC has had several) then they will at least pause with new models as
they navigate patent-sensitive areas.
Apple’s case was not just about smartphones but, if it is sensible, it will
avoid trying to squash Android tablets via Samsung. No maker has yet made
much headway here.
Apple has outsold Samsung, the market number two, by nine to one, according to
Bernstein. Any banning of Samsung’s tablets (to be decided in California
next month) is only likely to push rivals into the arms of Microsoft, whose
tablet-friendly Windows 8 is due to launch. Apple’s old foe is already
friendly with tablet makers that have always outsourced PC operating systems
to it.
And any boon to Microsoft’s tablet ambitions will not hurt its Windows Phone
either, especially if phonemakers hedge their Android bets. ZTE and Huawei
already plan to produce Windows-based phones. Growing familiarity with the
system could even help raise Nokia from the nearly dead.
Samsung’s fine, as it stands, is only a 20th of this year’s forecast net
profits. The Korean group reckons the real loser is the consumer. Phone
users could in fact be the ultimate beneficiary as makers work harder to
innovate. Samsung’s latest phone, the SIII, is not part of this case and has
already set the benchmark by which Apple’s iPhone 5 will be judged. This
battle is not over yet.
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